隔夜市场 欧洲央行开始降息,市场平静应对

欧洲央行与市场预期一致,五年来首次降息。实践了经济学的一种做法,用经济衰退来解决通货膨胀。美国、加拿大和澳大利亚/新西兰也在采用这种“久经考验和证明有效的”经济战略。美国、澳大利亚和新西兰的借款人将继续承受痛苦。市场预计欧洲央行今年将再次降息至少一次。美联储预计要到今年晚些时候才会考虑降息,澳大利亚储备银行和新西兰储备银行预计要到 2025 年才会有缓解措施。由于市场对此已经有了充分的预期,因此降息发布后几乎没有动静。债券收益率走低,货币走势停滞。欧元交易价为 1.0870,而英镑仍有望再次触及 1.2800。
欧洲央行的行动对大宗商品货币影响不大,纽元交易价略低于 0.6200,而澳元则回升至 0.6650。澳大利亚贸易顺差继续,但出口和进口均出现下降,而市场正在等待今天中国的关键贸易数据。今晚美国将公布的非农就业数据预计将显示劳动力市场疲软。
The ECB cuts rates for the first time in five years, as expected, offering relief to borrowers. This has been an exercise in economics, that the best cure for inflation, is recession. The US, Canada and Australia/NZ are also employing this ‘tried, tested and proven’ economic strategy. The pain for borrowers is set to continue in the US, Australia and New Zealand. Markets anticipate that the ECB will cut again, at least once, this year. The Fed is not expected to consider cuts until later in the year and the RBA and RBNZ are projecting no relief until 2025. This was an entirely expected move from the ECB and markets hardly moved. Bond yields drifted lower and currencies tread water. The EUR traded 1.0870, while the GBP still looks to hit 1.2800, once again.
The ECB actions had little impact on commodity currencies, with the NZD trading just below 0.6200, while the AUD regained 0.6650. The Australian trade surplus continued, but with falls in both exports and imports, while markets await today’s key trade data from China. The important Non-Farm Payroll number, set to be released in the US tonight, is expected to show a weaker labour market.

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