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隔夜市场交易清淡，美国因独立日长周末而提前休市。除中国和美国外，欧洲和亚洲的服务业和综合 PMI 数据均走弱。在周五公布非农就业数据之前公布的美国 ADP 和 Challenger Jobs 报告显示出劳动力市场正在收紧。由于公布时间位于美国假期，市场对这一平时很重要的数据应该不会有什么反应，除非它是非常令人震惊的数据。在英国进行全国大选和法国将于周日举行的第二轮议会选举之前，欧洲市场紧张不安。法国预计现任总统将遭遇惨败，市场已经考虑到了这一点。欧元上涨至 1.0750，而英镑在选举前有所上涨，升至 1.2730。 欧洲和美国的债券收益率下跌，而美元走软，使商品货币上涨。澳元有望重新收复 0.6700，但新西兰元则难以回升至 0.6100。 There was quiet trading on markets overnight, as the US closed early, for an extended Independence Day long weekend. Services and Composite PMI data was weaker across Europe and Asia, apart from China and the USA. The ADP and Challenger Jobs reports in the USA pointed to the labour market tightening, ahead of the important Non-Farm Payroll number, set to be released Friday. There will be little reaction to this usually important number, due to the US Holiday, unless it is a world-beater or an absolute shocker.

欧洲通胀继续下降，目前看来大致可以确保欧洲央行今年会进一步降息。欧洲的CPI因经济进入衰退而受到抑制，其数据从 2.6% 降至 2.5%。然而欧洲股市继续下跌，市场预计 7 月 4 日美国独立日将出现进一步的政治混乱，而英国保守党政府已决定面对失败的选举结果，又一个全球主义政府即将被拒绝全球化、拒绝大规模移民、通胀和衰退的民众摧毁。然而用药可能比病更危险，即将上任的工党政府有可能会更糟糕。选举前，欧元交易价在 1.0740 左右，而英镑升至 1.2680。 美国就业岗位增加，与近期趋势相反，进一步考验美联储。美联储目前似乎在寻找推迟降息的借口，因此劳动力市场的任何收紧都会产生导致对应的效果。市场将关注亚洲、欧洲和美国即将发布的服务业和综合 PMI 数据，美国就业数据的影响将因独立日假期延长而得到缓解。 European inflation continued to move in the right direction, ensuring further rate cuts from the ECB this year. Inflation has been tamed by a deep and extended recession, falling to 2.5%, from 2.6%. European equity markets dipped lower as further political disruption is expected on July 4th, US Independence Day, which the British Tory Government had decided to face the electoral music. Yet another ‘woke’, globalists Government is about to be decimated by the people, who reject globalism, mass immigration, inflation and recession. The medicine is

继最近的欧洲议会选举之后，法国议会选举以右翼获胜。这只是议会选举的第一轮，但极右翼的国民联盟似乎有望获胜。这是法国极右翼的首次胜利，将会给总统马克龙带来压力，他的政党惨淡地排在第三位。欧元上涨至 1.0740，而法国 CAC 股票市场也受此消息影响飙升。欧洲的 PMI 制造业数据低迷，并且仍将如此。德国通胀继续走软，证明通胀的最佳解药是经济衰退。 澳大利亚和日本的制造业 PMI 数据也走弱，而中国则成功逆势走强。大宗商品货币继续承压，纽元回落至 0.6070，而澳元保持在 0.6650 左右。澳大利亚市场正在等待最新的澳大利亚央行会议纪要的发布，以了解央行的强硬立场。 The French Parliamentary elections shocked few, following the lead of the recent European election, with a win for the Right. This is only the first round of the Parliamentary elections, but it looks good for a victory for the National Rally. This would be a first for the right in France and will add pressure to the President Macron, who’s party came in a dismal third. The EUR rallied to 1.0740, while the CAC Share markets, also surged on the news. PMI Manufacturing data from Europe is in